All Eyes On Syria

What the fall of the Assad regime in Syria tells us about shifting power dynamics in the Middle East.

On Dec. 8, 2024, after decades of civil war and foreign meddling, the Assad regime in Syria, fell. A collection of rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a group banned by the US government for ties to al-Qaida, stormed Damascus with a lightning offensive. In a prompt exit, Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow, granted refuge by their most important ally during the regime’s final years of conflict. 

The future under HTS and Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, remains uncertain, in particular for the regional interests of Russia and Iran who supported Assad’s regime but could face marginalization if the new government shifts toward the Arab World and West.

The face of the new regime

Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa served as a fighter in the ranks of al-Qaida during the Second Gulf War, and then established the terrorist group’s offshoot in Syria, then known as al-Nusra Front. With foreign backing and popular support among Sunni Islamists, al-Nusra Front became a principal actor in the Syrian civil war and later rebranded as HTS in an effort to communicate an evolution from its al-Qaida origins. While leading fighters, al-Sharra operated under the nom de guerre Abu Muhammed al-Jawlani, an homage to his family’s origins in the Golan region.

For the last several years, HTS under Al-Sharaa governed parts of northwest Syria located in the Idlib province. Analysts reported that his group ruled Idlib with a combination of Islamist principals and government bureaucracy.

What comes next

Syria now stands at a crossroads between its former backers in Russia and Iran on one side, and the Arab world and the West on the other. Russia has offered incentives to re-establish their partnership, while the West has floated sanction relief as a possible future. 

Currently, the West still sanctions HTS as a terrorist group, as well as much of Syria’s industries and financial institutions. In interviews and press releases, Al-Sharaa has expressed frustration with these sanctions, drawing distinctions between his government and the Assad regime to justify re-establishment of economic relations with the West.

For Iran, the regime change is clearly a significant blow to its government and Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have leaned on Syria to project power across the Middle East and pressure Israel.

Israel utilized the chaos to extend its military presence further into the Golan Heights, a region northeast of Israel that is widely recognized as Syrian territory. Israel does not appear eager to relinquish this strategic territory in particular as it holds concerns about Türkey’s intentions in backing Al-Sharaa’s government.

On Feb. 2, 2025, al-Sharaa made his first foreign visit since the regime change to Riyadh, meeting with top Saudi officials, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This engagement signals a pivot away from Syria’s previous partners and a move toward reintegration with the Arab world. The budding relationship between Syria and Saudi implies support in post-conflict reconstruction and economic cooperation. 

Significance

Syria has the ability to impact events and outcomes across the Middle East, bringing wide ranging ramifications with its foreign relations. Over the past decade, its relationship with Russia and Iran heavily influenced the power dynamic in the region, to the disadvantage of the US and its traditional allies in the region.

While it is still the early days of al-Sharaa's government, the path he forges will weigh heavily on the new balance of power in the region.