Encircling the Bear: Buffer Zone or Blockade

Buffer Zone or Blockade?

Courtesy of the Florida Finibus Team

On September 7th, 2024, a Russian drone crossed into NATO territory and crashed in the Baltic States, marking the first incursion since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. While the invasion of Ukraine was “seemingly predictable” to many experts, this new encroachment raises new concerns about the potential for escalation between the Western alliance and the Kremlin, the world's largest nuclear power.

This drone incident occurs against the backdrop of ongoing tensions related to the Ukraine conflict and Russia's increasingly assertive stance in Eastern Europe. While some, including Latvian military personnel, downplayed the event as a simple accident—merely a drone falling before flying into Ukraine—others view it as a dangerous precedent or even a form of provocation.

Lithuania’s defense minister went so far as to call for NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones that drift into their airspace. “NATO aircraft must not only patrol but also, if necessary, destroy the drones,” Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas declared in Vilnius. Since joining NATO in 2004, the three former Soviet Union republics have relied on NATO warplanes to patrol their skies due to a lack of aircraft.

Such incursions, whether intentional or accidental, carry the risk of miscalculation and potential conflict escalation.

The very next day, Ukraine targeted the Kremlin with its largest and strongest drone strike thus far. One civilian was killed, several buildings were damaged, and Moscow’s travel infrastructure was disrupted as 50 flights were diverted from airports.

The Baltics: A Historical Buffer Zone

The Baltics, long a geopolitical buffer zone, are increasingly becoming the front line in a conflict that has been simmering since NATO’s inception in 1949; insofar as NATO was created directly after World War II to curtail the Soviet’s power grab in Europe.

Historically, the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have served as a buffer between Russia and NATO. While these states are now NATO members, Russia continues to view the Baltics as a crucial part of its defense against Western influence. The Baltic States, however, present a different challenge due to their strategic position.

US Deterrence Calculus Failure

History must not repeat itself: NATO must be clear-eyed about Russia’s intentions to project. Rooted in the history of the Soviet-era KGB, Putin himself is the main successor to the USSR, who is otherwise described as a modern-day tsar.

This identity has driven Russia’s military modernization and strategic maneuvers. Between 2000 and 2019, Russian military spending increased by 175%, signifying its growing focus on projecting power in the region and bolstering its military prowess.

One of the most telling signs of Russia’s preparation for conflict in Ukraine was the Zapad military exercises in 2021, which involved over 200,000 troops along its western borders, a stark increase from past war games that included just over 100,000 troops. These exercises mirrored the build-up to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, echoing the same strategy seen prior to the annexation of Crimea.

The Role of Ethnic Russians and Media Manipulation

In Estonia and Latvia, the presence of significant Russian-speaking minority populations further complicates matters. The Russian government has a long history of using media manipulation to spread propaganda and stoke nationalist sentiment. By stoking fears and promoting Russian nationalist narratives, the Kremlin has sought to destabilize the region from within.

In the early 2000s, the Baltic's cybersecurity was particularly vulnerable due to outdated infrastructure and limited investment into the digital space post-Soviet independence. However, through concerted efforts and the support of the NATO alliance, these countries have become leaders in cyber defense. Estonia, for instance, turned a significant cyberattack attributed to Russian actors in 2007 into an opportunity to bolster its defenses, transforming itself into a global expert in cybersecurity. Although Russia continues to wage a plethora of hybrid attacks, Estonia now houses the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, playing a pivotal role in the alliance’s cybersecurity strategy.

A Tense Future for the Baltics

As NATO and Russia continue to vie for influence in the Baltics, the region’s importance as a buffer zone cannot be overstated. Russia’s use of both conventional and non-traditional warfare—cyberattacks, propaganda, and refugee crises—demonstrates its commitment to destabilizing the region. The recent drone incident is just one more indication that the conflict between NATO and Russia is far from over.

Russia’s encroachment into NATO territory, coupled with its military posturing, represents a direct challenge to the alliance’s resolve. While the drone incident may seem minor compared to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, it signals a willingness to push boundaries further west.

The Baltics will remain a key battleground in the broader NATO-Russia standoff. Whether NATO can effectively counter these provocations while maintaining unity among its members will be crucial in determining the future stability of the world.