Georgian Parliamentary Elections Spark Protests and Western Dissension

Citizen protests have been backed by the Georgian President and EU officials, who have accused Russia of directly tampering in the election.

Associated Press Creative Commons License

On October 26, 2024,  Georgia parliamentary elections took place, ultimately solidifying a majority for the ruling party “Georgian Dream.” Georgian Dream, often described as a pro-Russian political party, has been accused by opposition parties, EU officials, and Western election observers of election fraud based on “statistically impossible” results.

“These elections were stolen from the Georgian People,” stated Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili in an interview with Sky News. The president, who is largely a ceremonial figure in Georgian politics, has encouraged Georgian citizens to take to the streets to protest the election results.

Along with denouncing the election results and encouraging protests, the Georgian president and EU officials have also directly accused Russia of playing an active role in influencing the election. Despite accusations, there is a lack of concrete evidence that would imply direct Russian interference in the election, and the Kremlin has continued to deny any and all accusations.

“To what degree is this active involvement by Russian political technologists- or is it diffusion? In either case, Russian influence is there,” stated UF Professor of Political Science, Dr. Bryon Moraski. 

Passive Russian influence in the Georgian government has drawn western scrutiny recently, as parliament passed a “foreign agents” law that appeared to mirror Russia’s law requiring any NGO receiving 20 percent or more of its funding from foreign governments to register as agents of foreign influence. Critics have argued this law is meant to target organizations that are critical of the current regime.

Differentiating between active and passive Russian interference in elections may be difficult to discern, but the looming threat of Russian aggression is a real and present consideration for Georgian voters. Some have challenged the notion that the Georgian Dream Party could not win a majority of seats in a free election, pointing to citizens’ fear of provoking Russia by leaning further westward through joining the EU and NATO. According to the Caucasus Research Center, since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgians have increasingly been less supportive of actively limiting economic ties with Russia. Contrarily, a plurality of voters support strengthening or keeping ties as they are now.

It has been noted that while EU officials and election observers have alluded to Russian interference and party election fraud, no Western governments have labeled these elections as definitively stolen. Certain parties, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have taken a staunch position against any allegations of fraud.

“These elections were free and fair, but disputes will continue in Europe,” stated Orban.

Despite Orban’s opinion of these elections being a minority among Western and EU nations, his dissent is indicative of a larger question for the West: what comes next for Georgia? Georgia’s EU membership aspirations will likely be put on hold for the time being, but some nations may choose to continue unilateral relationships with Georgia. Orban’s embrace of the ruling party may not be the only support from world leaders that the current regime receives as  President Trump’s recent reelection was met with congratulatory remarks from Georgian officials and may allow for greater U.S support for the Southern Caucasus country. Outside of the West, China has developed a “strategic partnership” with Georgia and has increased its foreign investment in the region through its “Belt and Road Initiative,” which seeks to create new physical trade routes stretching across the globe. With its foreign relations and allies far from exhausted, the Georgian government’s future may not simply be a dichotomy between a westward or Russian alignment. As it weighs the outcomes of the ongoing popular protests, western nations may still hope for a multi-vector approach from the ruling party.