Governing in the Age of the Permanent Campaign

This op-ed article will explore how the ubiquity of polling has impacted the dynamic between campaigning and governing, incorporating insights presented at the UF Political Campaigning Conference to do so.

The 2024 election cycle is three months past, however, close viewers of the American political news cycle continue to be inundated with polling data on subjects ranging from President Trump’s job approval rating to the public’s opinion on the direction of the country to even the latest margins in the upcoming Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections this year. The gauging of public opinion through polling surveys has become a ubiquitous part of the political discourse of the United States. As the country shifts from campaign-mode to the work of governing, it is perhaps an apt moment to explore questions of how the relationship between the two have been and continue to be shaped by ever-increasing access to what people think in real time. This was a focus of Tuesday’s “2024 & Beyond” conference at the University of Florida’s Emerson Alumni Hall, featuring a keynote discussion with Kristen Soltis Anderson, herself a UF alumna, national pollster, and media contributor.

Anderson eloquently recounted how her time as an undergraduate student instilled in her a determination to use her high-profile roles as means to convey the ideas of average citizens to politicians and business leaders alike. She highlighted that the practice of polling is not inherently divisive. As the conference demonstrated, not shying away from charged issues can be a unifying experience. When done in good faith and with clear communication, debates are avenues to synthesis and stronger bonds.

Unfortunately, this is not the ethic commonly found on cable news, social media, or many of society’s public squares. The avalanche of information Americans are privy to minute-by-minute thanks to modern technology spawn robust, discordant conversations and opinions on a myriad of topics. Polls offer a way to cut through the noise and provide both officeholders and onlookers aggregation and more efficient processes of decision-making. Without proper perspective though, they can add fuel to the desire by many in positions of leadership to “win” the news cycle and be seen as having the backing of the public. This inevitably causes the line between campaigning and governing to blur, hampering efforts by key government figures to think in the long-term interests of the United States.

It is wiser to view the next poll to come across the screen as a “snapshot in time,” akin to the trend of TV networks putting a percentage on a team’s chances of victory during a football game. That might succinctly capture the team’s predicament in a single moment, but it is not determinative of its next play or how the opponent will react.

In the book The Shifting 21st Century Presidency by presidential historian Tevi Troy, Anderson describes how as a pollster she has observed that approval of the nation’s chief executive, regardless of party, in recent decades has situated to where she calls “low and steady.” That is, the public’s view of the last several presidents on average has been below 50% but relatively stable. This is not for lack of trying on the part of each respective administration, however, as is apparent in the stark differences on policy and personality from one to the next. Further support for this can be seen in the swinging control of Congress the last several midterm election cycles.

Public support as articulated in election outcomes is to be respected and sought in a system of government such as America’s. However, the effectiveness in which polls articulate such an opinion is an ongoing question. In November 2016, they underestimated support for Donald Trump and thus his likelihood of him winning the election. In early 2007, they indicated disapproval of President Bush’s decision to surge troops to Iraq, but the measure eventually resulted in the decline of violence on the ground.

Other than elections, polls are what people rely on to identify what a broad group thinks. Whether that group be your peers or who you rely on to vote for you, it is important to remember polls are evidence, not instructions.