The Indo-Pacific Needs President Trump: Countering the Red Dragon

Since President Xi Jinping’s rise, U.S.-China relations have been reminiscent of Cold War dynamics. The upcoming U.S. election will determine whether China faces a resolute American administration or a lacking successor, affecting its Indo-Pacific strategy for the next decade.

Disclaimer: This article does not represent the official opinions or beliefs of the Florida Finibus nor its editors. The opinions articulated in this piece are of the author, Brady White, only. 

Courtesy of the Florida Finibus Team

Under President Obama, the U.S. practiced a policy of appeasement towards China, prioritizing global issues like climate change, often at the cost of American economic and military interests. Agreements such as the 2014 climate accord required immediate U.S. compliance while allowing China leeway until 2030. This stance also extended to financial policies, favoring globalization over domestic industry protection. However, when Xi came to power in 2012, his assertive policies quickly challenged U.S. tolerance.

While tougher in rhetoric, the Biden administration has largely maintained this approach. Through enhancing AUKUS and the Quad alliances but often stopping short of direct action against Chinese provocations. According to the Associated Press, one notable example was the August 2024 incident when Chinese Coast Guard vessels aggressively rammed Philippine ships in contested waters, prompting a U.S. condemnation but little concrete response. This pattern of verbal reproach, without strong retaliatory actions, has emboldened China, which tests the extent of U.S. commitment to its allies.

In contrast, former President Trump took a firm stance, striving for fair trade and regional stability while conveying that Beijing’s aggressive tactics would not be tolerated. This is evident in the substantially stronger projected force posture in the region and the readiness to engage in an unprecedentedly larger trade war. 

The Hot Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific’s heavily contested waters, primarily the South China Sea (SCS) and the Taiwan Strait, are central to U.S.-China tensions. As stated in an article by the Council on Foreign Relations, Trump’s administration marked the highest level of U.S. naval activity in these areas in decades, projecting power and challenging China’s aggressive territorial claims. China’s artificial island-building in the SCS and Paracel Islands—militarized outposts that extend its reach—has been met by Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) from the U.S. and allies to affirm international access. Trump's decision to double naval deployments in this region contrasted with previous administrations, emphasizing his “no-nonsense” policy as a deterrence policy. 

The 2018 Trade War

In 2018, Trump initiated a large-scale trade war against China, targeting over $360 billion in Chinese goods through tariffs according to the BBC. This escalated tension economically but pressured China to negotiate. In an article by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in January 2020, the U.S. and China reached the Phase One Trade Deal, wherein China agreed to buy $200 billion more in U.S. goods and protect intellectual property—a victory for U.S. interests. Despite both countries facing economic drawbacks, the trade war showcased a U.S. resolve that deterred further Chinese provocations.

Concerns with Potential Harris Administration

With limited national security experience, Kamala Harris has yet to display a strong stance on China. Notable for hesitant responses on global issues, her approach contrasts sharply with Trump’s firm stance, raising concerns among U.S. allies. Her running mate, Governor Tim Walz, has voiced a conciliatory view of China as displayed in an article by the Tai Pei Times, questioning the need for an adversarial stance, which worries national security experts. Right now, Beijing is trying to calculate the critical mass, which would provoke a forceful and robust U.S. military response. The moment they conclude the armed and illegal annexation of Taiwan would not meet this threshold or one they see as acceptable; the free and democratic Republic of China will be plunged into war. According to Reuters, China has noted America’s restrained responses to recent global conflicts, from Russia to Iran, and would rightly anticipate a continuation of this lethargy under Harris, aiding in that calculation of that aforementioned critical mass.

Lessons from Chinese History

China’s history of nationalism, shaped by the Dynastic Cycle, frames its foreign policy. Historically, each Chinese dynasty rose, promised stability, declined, and was replaced, a pattern the Communist Party seeks to avoid. The PRC’s leaders are very much conscious of this cyclical nature as they are the product of the most recent dynastic cycle when communist forces overthrew the ROC. President Xi faces internal pressure due to economic slowdowns and seeks victories on the global stage to solidify his regime’s standing compounding aggressive impulses. 

Why President Trump?

President Trump has shown that he understands China’s political psyche and that only firm resistance will counter its expansionary behavior. His approach—fostering amicable relations where possible but standing resolute on core issues—reinforced U.S. alliances and set clear boundaries. In an article by Politico, Key figures likely to support Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy in key positions such as Secretary of State and Defense and other administrative appointments include Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Mike Pompeo, all known for advocating a robust China policy. The reelection of President Trump with a capable team and an incredibly effective Chief of Staff, such as Susie Wiles, would signal to Chairman Xi and China that the United States and its allies are not to be trifled with and that the Pacific will remain free and open.